As 2009 draws near the end, companies that have managed to survive wintry market conditons should happliy find themselves reunited with a spring-like 2010. While spiking unemployment rates should render 1Q10 somewhat standoffish, recovery refreshingly seen in the emerging markets, global ICT giants’ guidance for sales growth of 9.9%, and institutional forecast that global IT spending should grow 3.3% have combined to paint a rosy prospect for the upcoming 2010, pumping up morale of ICT sector worldwide. According to Topology Research Institute’s “10 Projections for Global ICT Industry in 2010” that has recently been released, production value of leading ICT products will grow nearly 10% YoY in 2010, when semiconductor capex will grow 43.6% YoY. Meanwhile, DRAM and panel prices will stabilize, NB, LCD TV, handset, and digital still camera are all en route to YoY shipment growth of 5-20%, while networking equipment and LED sector are poised to grow 8.9% and 14% YoY in terms of production value. In the opinion of Simon Yang, Director of Topology Research Institute, macroeconomic growth will be mild at best in 2010, but ICT industry will boom to foretell the closure of the financial crisis.

Emerging nations will play crucial supporting roles in ICT recovery

TRI’s research shows that semiconductor capex, long deemed an important leading indicator of ICT industrial cycles, should emerge as a pleasant surprise in 2010, when TSMC, Global Foundries, Toshiba, Samsung, and Intel should scramble to step up capital expenditure, causing global semiconductor capex to grow 43.6% YoY in 2010. On increased capex, global semiconductor production value will hit US$228bn in 2010, up 10% YoY, evidencing resumption of semiconductor growth.

As Chinese market demand remaining strong while European/American markets graduall recovering, DRAM market is leaning back towards supply/demand balance. In 1H10, the traditional slow season, DRAM market conditions will falter a little again, but Windows 7 should come to DRAM’s aid in mid-2010, when DRAM ASP should rise again. Overall for 2010, DRAM price should grow slightly YoY. As luck would have it, large-size panel is witnessing increased application NB and TV markets. On increased demand and disciplined capacity expansion, we expect large-size panel to see production value grow 18.7% YoY in 2010, when industrial players can hope to see 2008 boom repeat itself on a perhaps smaller scale.

Meanwhile, as LED continues to penetrate NB, TV, and other consumer electronics products, white LED demand has much increased. In China, World Expo in Shanghai and stimulus policies aimed at expanding domestic demand are trusted to boost demand for electronic signage and street lamps, which will both translate into LED orders. For 2010, it’s expected that LED production value worldwide will grow to the new high of US$7.997bn for annual growth of 14%. The steadily-performing networking equipment sector should see 2010 global production value hit US$467bn, up 8.9% YoY, mainly drawing growth steam from China, India, and other emerging markets where demand for networking infrastructure continues to thrive, thereby bringing on consumption of Ethernet LAN switch equipment.

Terminal devices have various tricks up their sleeves, sharing explosive growth

As things get better for key components and networking equipment toward mid- and upstream, terminal devices could rise on the high tides too. Considering the launch of Windows 7, improved prevalence of mobile broadband connection, recovery of the commercial model market, booming of customized consumer market, and an urge shared by manufacturers to dish out innovative products, TRI forecasts that in 2010, NB shipments will grow 21.71% YoY to 185mn units, while PC shipments as a whole will hit 318mn units, up 10.37% YoY. The commercial NB market should go on a wave of replacement buying spree in 2H10. Not to let PC market steal the entire show, LCD TV will eke out shipment of 156mn units, up 20% YoY, in 2010, when LED TV will sell like hot cakes while Chinese market will keep growing on factors including policy that grants tax rebates to buyers of energy-conservative models.

Global economic recovery is a timely shot in the arm for global handset market, while demand contributed by emerging markets are also of great assistance, prompting leading handset vendors to roll out entry-level smartphones that feature extremely attempting price tags. As such, 2010 global handset shipments are projected at 1.589bn units, up 12% YoY, including 235mn units of smartphones, up a whopping 29% YoY. DSC, which has long been both complementing and competing with handsets, will enlist the help of built-in 3D imaging, micro projector, and dual screens to widen its lead over handsets. To be exact, DSC shipments should grow 5.5% YoY, compared to -5.8% in 2009, to 129mn units in 2010.

As for global ICT industry that has semiconductor, handset, NB and seven other main ICT sub-sectors rolled into one, Deputy Director Simon Yang of Topology Research Institute optimistically predicts an annual production value of US$813.6bn for 2010, up 9.7% over US$741.4bn in 2009. Large-size panel and solar power sub-sectors, in particular, will lead with YoY growth of 18.7% and 17.6%, while semiconductor, NB, LED, and WLAN will each grow over 10% YoY.

Overall for 2010, the global ICT market will gradually bottom out, despite some minor bumps on the road to better days ahead.